Friday, 4 May 2007
HoodieTV: Local elections in England
Oh dear. This vlog experiment isn't going well, is it? To fail once is excusable, especially when you're ill. To fail twice is certainly pushing it. To fail a third time is unacceptable.
The excuse this time: technical problems. I recorded the vlog, but for some reason the video and the audio are out of sync, and I can't fix it. It also looks as if I'm doing something rather dodgy with my left hand, although I assure you this is merely a cruel trick of the camera! To top it all, I'm out of battery, and I'm out of the will to live, let alone re-record the darn thing.
So here's a transcript of what I would have said:
"Paradoxically, the first thing to become clear from these election results is that there is no clear message for any of the main parties. We’re dealing with a pretty nuanced and complex set of data, and all three parties will be able to spin some positives out of it.
"I'm sure the Conservatives will be celebrating the most. Before this vote, Tory bloggers were saying they’d be happy with 40% projected national vote share, and they’ve exceeded expectations with 41 – in theory, that’s enough for a majority at the next general election. In practice, you can’t just neatly extrapolate general election results from the results for local councils, and the Tories can’t just assume they’re on their way to an easy landslide in a couple of years. Still, they’ve given themselves a very good springboard, and David Cameron’s position can only be more secure now.
"Labour must be relieved to have avoided a total electoral meltdown – but the fact that avoiding a meltdown is seen as an achievement shows how bad things have become. With their leadership still unresolved, it’s hard to place Labour at the moment. It’ll take a few months of Gordon to know where they really stand in public opinion.
"Which brings me onto the Lib Dems, and a worryingly indecisive result. Impressive gains in some places, offset by losses elsewhere. Most upsettingly, we seem to have lost some middle-of-the-road votes to the Tories, whilst picking up disaffected Labour support, in a sort of revolving-door action. At a time when we need to be consolidating, building a core vote, and establishing an identity based on policy and on principles, this doesn’t bode particularly well.
"It isn't a disaster by any means. It certainly isn’t the time for panic, or for drastic and rushed remedies. But over the coming weeks and months, we’re going to have to think long and hard about how to make progress, and how to kick-start the party from here."